Fast forward: Next 10 years

I finished my master degree 10 years ago. Back then there were very little video on the web and podcast was not "invented" yet. My master thesis was about filming lectures at universities, such that students would be able to optimize the way the study. By only viewing lecture videos with high ratings and be able to fast forward or rewind and review important stuff several times.

This year I realize that TED is a very good answer to my dreams back then.

Right after I graduated 10 years ago I got a job in the R&D department in Nokia, Copenhagen. I was supposed to work with GPRS and 3G data software (which was all very futuristic back then). I had many job offers. But I choose Nokia because I thought it was a very promising future with internet connection everywhere. But then 3G licenses was sold at astronomical costs and we techies realized that it would be many years before we would see low cost internet everywhere. And at the same time WAP manifested itself as a BIG flop.

This year something interesting has happened... I worked on a project where we would providefree WiFi internet in the trains in Denmark. Costs will be covered by advertisement. Later this project will spread to all sports facilities, waiting rooms, shopping centers, etc. Within a few years, there will be free internet in most of the public space in many countries. We will also see some mobile network operators which will provide free interent connection everywhere in exchange for advertisement.

Last week Google released their first alpha version of theirChrome OS (open source = free). Earlier this year they also released their Android OS (also open source and free).

I think that there is a very good probability that we will soon (2 - 4 years) see free computers and mobile phones given away to very large percentages of the population in the world. Affectingly resulting in free computers, mobile phones and free internet. Everywhere, always and for everyone with a credit card. (by the way I assume that credit cards will migrate into these devices soon too.)

At the same time the cloud computers are raising at a fantastic speed. Today Google is buying more computers than Germany every year. And Google, Microsoft, Amazon, etc. continues grow huge data centers at a very fast pace. Today there are 1 billion internet connected computers in the world. Soon we expect there will be trillions of internet connected computers. At which point humans will not control the computer, but system will control information, which control computers, which control most aspects of the humans everyday life.

She asks: So will all this computer power be green? Island has been pointed out as a perfect place to place huge datacenters with billions of computers. Island has free energy from their seismic underground and at the same time they have lots of cooling water and great internet connection. Sitting on top of most of the transatlantic internet cables. (So invest in Island now ;-))

Today the leading housing product manufactures in Denmark demoed a very energy efficient house. In fact the house can produce more energy than it uses, thus the surplus energy can be sold or used tocharge a car to drive 100 km pr. day. Then you add the modern water cleaning technologies that uses reverse osmosis and can produce 99.9999% clean water. This completely remove the need for cable and pipe infrastructure to every house and remove the need for power plants too. In addition it makes more sense to produce these modern houses in factories in low cost labor countries. In fact IKEA has already started doing so.

Next week there is a big climate conference in Copenhagen, where world leaders will try to reduce oil needs and boost renewable energy production. But we all know they will fail BIG time to make any significant changes in climate and energy production. But they will make sure their appearance are optimized for positive domestic press. If they had any balls what so ever, they would reduce oil, gas and coal consumption by 5% every year starting from 2010. We clearly have all the technologies to do so, but this will cost jobs … which is not good for reelection.

Let me try to summarize what this will mean to our economics as we know it today. Utility companies and media corporations will die a slow and painful death. Construction companies and craftsman labor force will probably be reduced to ½ of what it is today. Information and advertisement will be coupled even closer than we have seen before and in ways that is increasingly difficult to deciphered. Real time search engines and other agents will be an absolute necessarily for any human and corporation. So old jobs will disappear and new jobs in IT sector and housing factories will be created. But not necessarily in the same locations.

Meanwhile my brother and I worry more about when the next major world war will surface. Both USA and China are very proud nations and I predict that the American economics will worsen when weapon based oil dominance, seas to drive the US economics with unfair advantages. At the same time China continues to take control over huge chunks of the American brands and economic. This could cause dark forces in US to raise and take power and demand war.

By the way: Reasonably I asked my brother: What is the biggest shift/event in the world during the last 5 years. Answer: China is now the biggest english speaking country in the world!!

The big thing the next 10 years will be user aware advertisement. As computers and networks know more and more about us they can predict the probability that we are going to by this and that. Advertisement-network-operators will profile you and give you free products and services in return. A good profile may be worth 10 - 25% of your expected yearly spending ability. Similarly your price at banks, insurance companies, etc. will depend on your profile. Your ability to inspire people in your network to buy the same brands as you do will affect your profile too. And a new industry will rise that will help you optimize your profile to create more value for you.

(oh, and by the way.... as in politics where swing voters are important, this is also true in sales of goods). So be aware that this new industry will be a double headed creature. And you never can tell if your agent is working for you or a company that are looking to increase market share or a political candidate who is looking for increased market share.

The next Bill Gates like billionaire will be he who finds a smart agent that can profile people well from information they are willing to give on request or is freely available on the net.

AND DON'T.... send your kids to collage any more. It is a waste of time and money. You need to teach them to learn from the net. I am 100% sure that they can learn minimum 10 times faster from the net, than from old fashion lectures. If you don't know where they should start; I suggest starting to read large parts of Wikipedia and watch TED videos. Find something they are passionate about and get a job related to that.

My final word of advice. If you don't want to invest your money in the top 10 ad serving companies. Then you should invest in Chine or India. Hans Rosling predicts that in 2048 Chinese and Indian economics will catch up with US and Europe. Thus investing in real estate in major cities in these countries may be a sure bet. By the way I recommend Hans Roslings talk at TEDas one of the best 15 minutes lectures on world economics and history combined. (Did you know that receiving standing ovation at TED is considered comparable to a Nobel price)